Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, has devised a formula that can predict the outcome of elections. He created the formula in 1996 and has used it to correctly predict the outcome of every presidential election since then. He has also applied the formula retrospectively to previous elections since 1912, and it has yielded the correct results for every election except for the election of 1960.
And here’s the most intriguing news: He predicts that Trump has a 97-99 percent chance of winning the general election this November.
Here’s how Norpoth’s formula works – by analyzing a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns, Norpoth has been able to accurately forecast the outcome of general elections.
In a presentation at the SUNY Global Center, Norpoth admitted that at first, he had a difficult time taking these results seriously.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” he said. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
Norpoth added that the primary model forecasts Trump’s success with such certainty due to Trump’s successes in 12 out of 19 Republican primaries thus far. In the Democratic primaries, there has been a much tighter race between Sanders and Clinton, with Clinton pulling ahead 11-8.
Norpoth also said that Republican candidates Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio do not have as high chances to win the general election as Trump.
The general public is skeptical at best of these results.
“I have trouble believing that [Trump’s odds are so good],” freshman government and politics and women’s studies double major Rachel Greenberg said.
“I understand that the poll has had incredible accuracy in the past but I think that Trump is hated more than he is loved, and a lot of Republicans won’t vote if he is the nominee, whereas if Bernie wins a lot of Hillary fans would support him, and if Hillary wins a lot of Bernie fans would support her.”
Freshman government and politics and theater double major Paige Weiss also thinks that this formula’s result is questionable.
“I think that even though that formula has been correct in the past, Donald Trump is such a different type of candidate that we need a different formula to predict this election. Even though Donald Trump isn’t really a predictable candidate.”
And that’s just it. This election has numerous unprecedented factors that make it difficult to estimate the ultimate results of the general election in November. The fact that most people find the idea of a Trump victory shocking is telling in and of itself.